Rising Geopolitical and Policy Risk: What the Fraser Institute’s 2024 Mining Survey Reveals About Global Investment Attractiveness and Australia’s Decline [Andy - 2025 edition has been released?]

The Fraser Institute’s Annual Survey of Mining Companies 2024 (released July 2025) serves as a leading barometer of global mining investment attractiveness. While top-tier jurisdictions in the US, Canada, and Europe strengthen their appeal, Australia has seen a sharp and broad-based decline across every state and territory — with several now ranking in the global bottom quartile. This insights piece examines the survey’s key findings, the growing role of policy and geopolitical risk in capital allocation, and the implications for Australian investors and the resources sector.

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Geopolitical Risk – Insights from the Fraser Institute 2024 Mining Survey

The Fraser Institute, a leading Canadian think tank celebrating 50 years of promoting sound public policy, released its Annual Survey of Mining Companies 2024 in July 2025. This widely respected annual report provides a comprehensive assessment of investment attractiveness across 82 jurisdictions worldwide, combining geological potential with the critical impact of government policy.

The survey was distributed to approximately 2,300 exploration, development, and mining companies globally, receiving 350 responses. It evaluates how mineral endowments and public policy factors — such as taxation, regulatory uncertainty, political stability, and environmental rules — influence exploration investment decisions.

Key Global Highlights from the 2024 Investment Attractiveness (IA) Index

• Finland climbed to the #1 position globally (up from 17th the previous year).

• The top 10 jurisdictions were dominated by the US, Canada, and Nordic countries: Nevada, Alaska, Wyoming, Arizona, Sweden, Saskatchewan, Newfoundland & Labrador, Guyana, and Norway.

• Bottom 10 included Ethiopia (least attractive), Suriname, Niger, Nova Scotia, Mozambique, Madagascar, Bolivia, Dominican Republic, Guinea (Conakry), and Minnesota. Africa had the most jurisdictions in the bottom ranks.

• China remained unranked in 2024 but has consistently performed poorly in recent years.

Australia’s Concerning Slide

Australia has traditionally been viewed as a Tier-1 mining jurisdiction alongside the US and Canada. However, the 2024 survey painted a troubling picture:

• Tasmania, Victoria, and New South Wales all ranked in the global bottom quartile. Tasmania and Victoria sat in this bottom 25% for three of the last five years, while NSW joined them in 2024.

• Queensland dropped out of the top quartile for the first time in five years.

• Only Western Australia remains in the global top quartile — though it too fell significantly (from 4th to 17th overall).

• Every single Australian state and territory saw its Investment Attractiveness ranking decline in 2024 — the first time in six years this has occurred across all jurisdictions. All reached their lowest rankings in the past six years.

• In comparison, 50% of referenced US states and 33% of Canadian provinces rank in the global top quartile, versus just 15% for Australia.

For context, Victoria now ranks below California, Colombia, and Burkina Faso in some metrics, while Tasmania sits near Mali and Guinea on policy perception.

Why This Matters: Policy as Geopolitical Risk

This survey is not just about geology — it is a clear measure of how government policy either attracts or repels private capital. Mining companies are highly sensitive to regulatory uncertainty, retrospective taxation, permitting delays, and political stability. The consistent decline across all Australian jurisdictions signals rising sovereign and geopolitical risk, aligning with anecdotal feedback from investors and the observed capital redeployment by major ASX companies (BHP, Rio Tinto, Woodside) into more attractive jurisdictions like Argentina and the US.

At GERAF, we apply strict guardrails when assessing geopolitical and policy risk. Based on these results alone, several Australian states would trigger heightened scrutiny or exclusion. This reinforces the need for disciplined, jurisdiction-aware investing in the resources sector.

The Broader Implications

In an increasingly fragmented world, capital flows to jurisdictions that offer policy predictability, competitive taxation, and respect for property rights. Australia’s slide in global rankings — despite its world-class geology — should serve as a wake-up call for policymakers, particularly in Queensland and other states heavily reliant on resources investment.

Investors should pay close attention to these signals when constructing portfolios. Geopolitical and policy risk is no longer a secondary consideration — it is a primary driver of long-term returns in the commodities and mining sector.

Recommended Reading: Fraser Institute – Annual Survey of Mining Companies 2024 (Full PDF)